By 2014 and 2015, wars in Ukraine and Syria revealed Russia's integration of drone surveillance, precision-strike capabilities, and deniable private military companies as tools to wage war with fewer casualties to regular Russian forces. WebHow outdated is the Russian military? Like, the troll factory creates disinformation, creates the fog of war. Despite having a huge advantage in armor when the war broke out, severe losses have weakened Russias forces. Geolocated footage published on February 28 allegedly shows the aftermath of a Ukrainian HIMARS strike on a Russian ammunition warehouse in Kadiivka. Others have reportedly been found knocking on village doors for food or, in one case, asking a local police station for fuel. But one thing stands out to some analysts. But one of the lessons thats clearly evident is that the will of the people, the will of the Ukrainian people, and the importance of national leadership and the fighting skills of the Ukrainian army has come through loud and clear.. These factors still leave Russia at a deficit compared to US spending, but a much smaller one than decontextualized budget figures imply. This is deliberate; its part of the top-down command system dating back to Soviet times, if not earlier. Its seen as the first part of an expected spring offensive, and so far is not going well. For over a decade, Russia has undergone a great modernization of its military. Having the Ukrainians just wreck your airborne units, elite Russian units, has to be devastating for Russian morale, said Frederick W. Kagan, an expert on the Russian military who leads the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute. [64]Prigozhin praised the soldiers and stated that he has already asked Russian military authorities to transfer them to a Wagner subgroup. Articles may contain affiliate links which enable us to share in the revenue of any purchases made. Friedman, a military historian and tactician, went further: This isnt a good army executing a bad plan. In 2022, Moscow allocated $61.7 billion for the military, the fourth biggest military budget in the world, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). MCFATE: Basically, it's anything that doesn't look like World War II is sort of, like, what that means, or sneaky warfare. And so, as the Russian invaders met resistance, they didnt quite know what to do. According to U.S. officials, the Russian military has committed 80 percent of its active-duty army, airborne, and marine units and their equipment to Ukraine, and it has already withdrawn additional equipment from long-term storage. They have been updated through the decades. [55], Russian forces continue to face severe difficulties in replenishing military equipment and ammunition. And though the Finns executed a masterful mobile defense against larger Soviet forces in 1939-1940 and 1944, Helsinki was still eventually forced to sue for peace and cede the Karelian Isthmus both times. They are mercenaries. [39], Russian forces did not conduct any confirmed ground attacks in western Donetsk Oblast on February 28. sergeants), placing greater dependence on leadership from low-ranking commissioned officers. Ukrainian Southern Operational Command spokesperson Natalia Humenyuk stated that Russian shelling of Mykolaiv Oblast has become less intense because Russian forces are hesitant to go to the end of the Kinburn Spit to shell Ochakiv, Mykolaiv Oblast and surrounding areas. One year into the war in Ukraine, the conflict does not appear closer to ending, and Russian tanks appear no better at avoiding destruction. [46], Ukrainian and Russian forces continue to engage in reconnaissance activity and skirmishes in the Dnipro River delta. Armored forces attempting to take the Ukrainian town of Vuhledar are being decimated by landmines. But I wonder if you feel that this is a relevant concept here in this - in modern warfare. In this operation, the Russian military never achieved the necessary momentum. A Russian bomber crew successfully landed their stricken aircraft in a field after the one of the airplanes engines failed. Click here. The military mobilized an unspecified amount of [47]Ukraines Southern Operational Command reported that Russian sabotage and reconnaissance occasionally try to move between islands in the Dnipro River in converted civilian vessels and that Ukrainian forces destroyed two of these watercraft on February 28. Russian independent media outlets also reported on February 27 that Russian courts extended the sentence of a Moscow resident previously sentenced for an While the Russian armys troubles are real, the publics view of the fight is skewed by the realities of the information battlefield. It's mistaken to assume perceptions of the Russian and Soviet militaries necessarily remain true today. Note: ISW does not receive any classified material from any source, uses only publicly available information, and draws extensively on Russian, Ukrainian, and Western reporting and social media as well as commercially available satellite imagery and other geospatial data as the basis for these reports. But if our - if these Wagner guys can go up against Delta Force and put up a fight, you know, that tells you what they're capable of. Most of all, Russia has exposed to its European neighbors and American rivals gaps in its military strategy that can be exploited in future battles. The Ukrainian General Staff amplified on February 28 a report from Ukraines Head of the Center for Trophy Research, Colonel Alexander Zaruba, assessing that Russian purchases of equipment from North Korea and Iran and deployment of outdated Kh-22 missiles indicate that Russia itself cannot meet wartime production needs. This is what the Russian military has done elsewhere, notably in Chechnya, when its officers feel frustrated. [33]A Russian milblogger remarked that Russian troops are attacking towards Bohdanivka in order to threaten the Khromove-Bakhmut route. In short, 2023 is a pivotal year in the war, and it is extremely important that Russia does not But they are advancing on winding roads and their flanks and supply routes are overly exposed to Ukrainian attacks.. DONETSK OBLAST, UKRAINE - FEBRUARY 14: Ukrainian soldiers load ammunition to tanks on the frontline near the towns of Vuhledar and Marinka as Russian-Ukrainian war continues in Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine on February 14, 2023. Russia is believed to have lost almost 1,000 tanks in its war with Ukraine, a senior US defense official said Thursday. Ask any person who has either seen this from the inside and is not biased. And it appears to keep happening, with Russian forces unable to avoid the mines. Only 64% of Russian military equipment and machinery is new or recent. Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and continue offensive operations into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast), Russian sources claimed that Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks near Svatove on February 28. They've moved troops around the country in slow, lumbering convoys that have seemed to get stuck at times, and they've had trouble keeping up their supply lines. [30]The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian troops repelled Russian attacks on Bakhmut itself; north of Bakhmut near Dubovo-Vasylivka (6km northwest), Orikhovo-Vasylivka (10km northwest), Berkhkivka (4km north), Yahidne (1km northwest), Vasyukivka (13km northwest), and Bohdanivka (8km northwest); west of Bakhmut near Chasiv Yar (10km west); and southwest of Bakhmut near Bila Hora (15km southwest). But even more critical are losses of heavily armed, but lightly armored BMP Old and outdated equipment has given way to new and sophisticated weapons [32]Russian milbloggers claimed that Wagner forces are trying to advance on central Bakhmut from the north near the Stupky station and from positions on the eastern outskirts of Bakhmut. They work - they're owned by a Russian oligarch called Prigozhin, who's close to Putin. The invocation of Chechnya and Finland is peculiar as while both conflicts with Russia suggest certain operational and tactical lessons, neither ended victoriously for Russia's opponents. [31]Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasized that the situation in Bakhmut is becoming increasingly complicated, and Commander of the Ukrainian Ground Forces Colonel General Oleksandr Syrsky remarked that Wagner is increasingly committing its most prepared assault units to offensives in the area. We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas. Adaily email update of the stories you need to read right now. [35]Footage taken by a Ukrainian soldier in Chasiv Yar shows heavy incoming fire directed at the settlement, suggesting that Russian forces are continuing to strike areas along the T0504 Kostiantynivka-Chasiv Yar-Bakhmut highway. [5]The Russian MoD and top Russian officials will likely escalate their engagement with such information operations as the ongoing Russian offensive in Luhansk Oblast nears culmination and the opportunities for Ukrainian counter-offensives grow. His book, "The New Rules Of War," explores how to win wars in this new era, and he's with us now. [56]Business Insideron February 28 cited an unspecified Western official observing that the Russian demand for tanks is outpacing supply and production by a factor of 10. As a subscriber, you have 10 gift articles to give each month. https://t.me/mod_russia/24466;https://t.me/mod_russia/24467;https:// https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-ass https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-does-not-see-significant-near-term-r https://www.vice.com/en/article/bvmwk4/pentagon-putin-nukes-ukraine. ), Damage to the Russian Aerospace Forces Beriev A-50 airborne early warning and control plane at the Machulishchi Air Base in Minsk, Belarus, remains unclear as of February 28. [21]US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Director William Burns stated on February 25 that the CIA is confident that Chinese leadership is considering the provision of lethal equipment to Russia. [47]https://t.me/RVvoenkor/39332;https://twitter.com/Danspiun/status/16306 [48]https://www.facebook.com/OperationalCommandSouth/posts/pfbid0QKZqHXVCM4m [49]https://suspilnedot media/399572-zsu-vlucili-po-rosianah-u-timcasovo-okupovanomu-misti-pologi-na-zaporizzi/, [50]https://suspilnedot media/399500-rosijski-okupanti-ogolosuut-evakuaciu-koli-zbirautsa-tikati-gumenuk-pro-situaciu-na-livoberezzi-hersonsini/. In total, russia has only 6 A-50Us and 3 WebRussia held its annual Victory Day military parade in Moscow on Monday but canceled the air force flyby over what it said was bad weather. Former Soviet satellite Slovakia has been a NATO member since 2004, but the reality of belonging to the worlds biggest military alliance really kicked in after Russias invasion of Ukraine a year ago. MARTIN: So one reason I think that Russian tactics stand out is that, in recent years, we have really associated the Russians with so-called hybrid war - right? What we consider before using anonymous sources. Ukraine meanwhile is receiving a variety of Western vehicles, including Leopard 2 tanks, and Bradley infantry fighting vehicles. It's certainly true that the US's financial means allow it to deploy global power projection capabilities including nuclear-powered supercarriers and hundreds of stealth combat aircraft that far exceed anything Russia's military can do. WebPutin hints that Russia's weapons are outdated, saying it needs to modernize its military hardware. Bakhmut is also where the Kremlin-aligned mercenary organization the Wagner Group has been leading the push, suffering heavy losses along the way, many of which are from the convicts recruited into the group. Deutsche Wellereported that Lukashenko will sign a large package of agreements on developing joint projects, trade, economic, investment, humanitarian cooperation, and political cooperation with China during his three-day visit. Moscow's inability to gain and hold significant ground in Ukraine, coupled with the destruction of much of its equipment in battle, has forced it to deploy Soviet-era tanks and weapons systems, according to Western intelligence. Faced with bad weather in northern Ukraine, the Russian officers grounded some Russian attack planes and helicopters, and forced others to fly at lower altitudes, making them more vulnerable to Ukrainian ground fire, a senior Pentagon official said. Regarding claims Russia lacks manpower due to a shrinking population, in fact only 5% of each yearly male cohort is conscripted, and the pool of available manpower is expected to increase for at least a decade. Anyone can read what you share. Thanks for signing up! [14]Russias suggested pre-invasion security talks called for the West to acknowledge a list of security guarantees demanding a moratorium on NATO expansion, a ban on the deployment of Western strike weapons near Russia, and the de facto withdrawal of NATO forces to their 1997 posture.[15]. Theyve sent in only about two-thirds of the troops and weapons that had been poised on the Ukrainian border. [1] The Russian MoD relatedly claimed on February 19 that Ukrainian officials are planning false-flag attacks at hazardous radiation facilities in Ukraine to accuse Russian forces of indiscriminately striking such sites. Exact losses are unconfirmed; Ukraines military claims that in mid-February Russia lost 36 tanks. Relative to GDP, Russia outranks even the United States, with 4.3 percent of its economic output going to the military, versus 3.7 percent. The question How outdated is the Russian military? is a bit silly when one considers the acknowledgement made by nearly every MSM of the advancem When Russian forces rolled into neighboring Georgia in 2008, they carried the baggage of an outdated Soviet-era military: subpar communications, old equipment That's what they're MARTIN: That's what their modus operandi - that is how they operate. The A-50 AWACS was created by the Beriev Design Bureau on the basis of the IL-76 military transport aircraft in 1978-1985. It looks like the Ukrainians have been most successful when ambushing Russian troops, Mr. Bullock said. They are joined, or are about to be joined, by Belarusian troops and Chechen special forces. In September, Putin also urged Russian defense companies to modernize and increase their production capacities, advising them to study how their equipment fares against Western weapons, per state-affiliated TV channel NTV. But with each day that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky holds out, the scenes of a frustrated Russia pounding, but not managing to finish off, a smaller opponent dominate screens around the world. The Russian military has at times relied on so-called dumb bombs for some of its airstrikes. The result: Militaries in Europe that once feared Russia say they are not as intimidated by Russian ground forces as they were in the past. WebPutin brags that Russian weapons are 'years, perhaps even decades' ahead of rivals as his army pulls old Soviet-era tanks out of deep storage due to losses in Ukraine Jake Epstein 2022-08-16T13:56:17Z He is a veteran, a former private military contractor and more recently an author. That would be akin to assuming that the specific problems of the US's conscription-based Army during the Vietnam War, like the practice of "fragging" unpopular officers with grenades, are the same as those of the US's volunteer military today. Pretty outdated. Only 64% of Russian military equipment and machinery is new or recent. It is 82% in Strategic Nuclear Forces, but only 48,3% in th Even the best armies take a while to get going. After four days of fighting, the Russian military is bogged down in Ukraine. A Saint Petersburg local news source reported that a graduate student faces criminal charges for breaking a window at the Vyborg Raion, Saint Petersburg military registration and enlistment office, and painting anti-war slogans in the office on February 26. Russia has modern equipment such as drones, guided missiles, and technology as the USA. Russia at the moment, are depleting their older Soviet era #Ukraine: A Russian T-72B3 tank and BMP-2 IFV were destroyed by the Ukrainian 72nd Brigade using an AT mine and ATGM respectively in Mykilske near Vuhledar, #Donetsk Oblast. bragged to foreign allies at a military forum. The photograph is said to have been taken in late 2022. It's certainly horrifying. A Ukrainian official reported that Russian forces are vulnerable to Ukrainian strikes on the Kinburn Spit in Mykolaiv Oblast and may be preparing to withdraw from positions closer to the Dnipro River on the east (left) bank in Kherson Oblast. ISW will revise this text and its assessment if it observes any unambiguous indicators that Russia or Belarus is preparing to attack northern Ukraine. In total, russia has only 6 A-50Us and 3 outdated A-50s. Pretty outdated. What are you thinking of? As part of that conflict, he is posting photos of dead Wagner soldiers in Bakhmut, giving a glimpse at how severe Russian losses are in the battle. Despite those losses, Russia is continuing its push, and with that still trying to move its armor forward, directly into Ukrainian landmines. But in the end, military officials say they still expect that mass will matter. Can we corroborate the information? In 2018, about 400 Wagner Group mercenaries went up against some of our best troops - Delta Force, Green Berets, Marines - in eastern Syria. Russia is believed to have lost almost 1,000 tanks in its war with Ukraine, a senior US defense official said Thursday. You know, the U.S. Marine Corps? https://t.me/readovkanews/53706;https://t.me/readovkanews/53701;http https://t.me/ukrbavovna/6824;https://twitter.com/seanders_geo/status/1 https://twitter.com/chris__759/status/1630324113616297984?s=20, https://t.me/wargonzo/11149;https://t.me/readovkanews/53706, https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=133231762743931, https://t.me/readovkanews/53706;https://t.me/sashakots/38685. Meanwhile, it is the Ukrainians who've seen more updated in their defenses, adopting fast-moving guerrilla tactics and using social media to relentlessly put out their message. Troops are trained in rote set pieces, with no time devoted to improvising if things dont go as planned. [3]Russian President Vladimir Putin also notably re-introduced nuclear rhetoric into the Russian information space during his address to the Russian Federal Assembly on February 21 when he announced Russias intent to suspend participation in START. This whole question of what constitutes a war crime in the modern era was established in the Geneva Convention in 1949. According to russian sources, the cost of one modified A-50U filled with valuable electronics is close to $330 million. Copyright 2022 NPR. As a result, two Il-76 transport planes, each carrying 100 airborne troops, were shot down. [16]Lukashenko also blamed the West and the US for coercing Ukrainian officials into rejecting negotiations with Russia. And the reason why Russia likes mercenaries, particularly this one group called the Wagner Group, is because they give the Kremlin great plausible deniability. Ukrainian soldiers have killed more than 3,000 Russian troops, according to conservative estimates by American officials. [75]ISW continues to assess that the forced deportation and adoption of Ukrainian children may constitute a violation of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide. Rather, we need to move past stereotypes even those with some historical basis that mischaracterize what Russia's military can and can't do today. And what's their - and why do they do it? As a result, Wagner should be considered a proxy organization of the Russian state rather than a private company selling services on the Registration on or use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Service. Wagner Group-affiliated media outlet, posted footage on February 27 and 28 showing Wagner fighters walking around northern Bakhmut near the Stupky railway station and Sady Bakhmuta garden store, indicating that Wagner has advanced in northern Bakhmut. [67]https://t.me/vladlentatarsky/19653;https://t.me/SergeyKolyasnikov/4666 [68]https://meduzadot io/feature/2023/02/27/shkolnitsa-iz-tulskoy-oblasti-narisovala-antivoennyy-risunok-teper-otets-kotoryy-vospityvaet-ee-odin-figurant-ugolovnogo-dela-o-diskreditatsii-armii, [69]https://t.me/astrapress/21972;https://t.me/sotaproject/54572, [70]https://minre.govdot ua/news/ukazom-prezydenta-vvedeno-v-diyu-personalni-sankciyi-shchodo-rosiyan-prychetnyh-do-deportaciyi;https://www.president.govdot ua/documents/1152023-45957, [71]https://minre.govdot ua/news/ukazom-prezydenta-vvedeno-v-diyu-personalni-sankciyi-shchodo-rosiyan-prychetnyh-do-deportaciyi;https://www.president.govdot ua/documents/1152023-45957, [73]https://minre.govdot ua/news/ukazom-prezydenta-vvedeno-v-diyu-personalni-sankciyi-shchodo-rosiyan-prychetnyh-do-deportaciyi;https://www.president.govdot ua/documents/1152023-45957, [74]https://armyinform.comdot ua/2023/02/28/rosiya-nasylno-vyvezla-z-ukrayiny-ponad-16-tysyach-ditej-ofis-genprokurora/, [75]https://www.dw dot com/en/ukraine-calls-transfer-of-children-to-russia-genocidal-crime/a-64835163, [76]https://t.me/SALDO_VGA/481;https://t.me/SALDO_VGA/480, [77]https://sprotyv.moddot gov.ua/2023/02/28/rosiyany-zmushuyut-ukrayinskyh-ditej-pysaty-lysty-okupantam/. https://twitter.com/fdov21/status/1630339835058593794;https://t.me/y https://www.facebook.com/watch/president.gov.ua/;https://suspilnedot. Get the latest military news, entertainment, and gear in your inbox daily. You can manage your newsletter subscriptions at any time. In addition, the Russian senior officers have proved so far to be risk-averse, the officials said. The Ukrainians have obliterated several old tanks armed with abundant anti-tank-guided missiles. In short, 2023 is a pivotal year in the war, and it is extremely important that Russia does not Most Russian capabilities have been sitting on the sidelines, said Michael Kofman, director of Russia studies at CNA, a defense research institute, in an email. Want to write for Task & Purpose? The town itself has been shattered by the fighting, with buildings bombed out and streets abandoned. [5]https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-ass [6]https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-does-not-see-significant-near-term-r https://www.vice.com/en/article/bvmwk4/pentagon-putin-nukes-ukraine. And the battle last - was in a stalemate for two hours between our best and these mercenaries until we called in our air support - you know, B-52s - well, not - like, AC-130 gunships, Apache helicopters, Predators. Military operations designed to take place sequentiallyStep 1, then 2, then 3, etc.fell apart, catastrophically. as well as other partner offers and accept our. Ukraine has shot down military transport planes carrying Russian paratroopers, downed helicopters and blown holes in Russias convoys using American anti-tank missiles and armed drones supplied by Turkey, these officials said, citing confidential U.S. intelligence assessments. according to the Kremlin's official site. And they do the Kremlin's dirty work. [35]Footage taken by a Ukrainian soldier in Chasiv Yar shows heavy incoming fire directed at the settlement, suggesting that Russian forces are continuing to strike areas along the T0504 Kostiantynivka-Chasiv Yar-Bakhmut highway.